A combined published estimate for today’s number of net new nonfarm payroll positions was 138,000. The result in this morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary exceeded that by 90,000, a welcome surprise. Except for one area, the other numbers, though, changed in light and variable ways. Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment were 4.2%, the former up 0.1% and the latter, as we moved to an average employment month, down 0.3%. The adjusted counts of those unemployed in general and those out for 27 weeks or longer stayed the same, at 7.1 million and 1.5 million. Those working part-time for economic reasons, or looking for a full-time position while temporarily keeping a shorter-hours one, lost 100,000 of last time’s 400,000 gain to reach 4.8 million. The two measures showing how likely it is for Americans to be working or one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, stayed the same and gained 0.1%, to 59.9% and 62.5%. Average hourly private nonfarm payroll wages rose 7 cents, or close to the inflation rate, to get to $36.00.
The area with
the clearest pattern was partial labor force attachment, the second through eighth
rows on the chart below. While the count
of those claiming temporary unavailability was up, the other six were down,
some substantially, with the group of people saying they wanted work but were not
looking for it for the past year showing the largest loss.
The American
Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the metric showing how many fresh positions could
be quickly filled if all knew they were easy to get, improved by 404,000 to
reach the following:
About 300,000
of the loss was from official joblessness, and almost all the rest was from the
categories of marginal attachment. The
share of the AJSN from unemployment edged down from 39.8% to 39.0%. Compared with a year before, the AJSN gained
about 400,000, with increases in those unemployed, discouraged, not wanting
work, and not looking for a year or more mostly offset by fewer expatriates.
What does the
overall picture look like? Except for
the higher-than-expected number of new jobs, and the mostly seasonal increase
in employment, up 868,000, not much happened.
Lower figures in the marginal attachment statuses may start a trend, but
they are only down to about where they were a year before. As it usually does during increased
employment months, whether seasonally caused or not, the labor force grew, with
362,000 fewer out of the labor force and 153,000 fewer not interested. Next time we will see the effect of Wednesday’s
announced tariffs, if they are still in place, and other labor-affecting
presidential moves. For now, though, I
saw the turtle take a tiny step forward.
I hope that the May report will not be worse.
