Tuesday, October 22, 2013

September AJSN: USA Now 20 Million Jobs Short as 2013 Trends Continue

The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment data may have been delayed, but it didn’t change much.  Seasonally adjusted jobs were up 148,000, about 15,000 more than needed for population increase, and the official unemployment rate was down fractionally to 7.2%.  That rate when not seasonally adjusted fell, as expected in a month when more people go back to school and more jobs pop up, to 7.0%. 

Secondary measures were almost uniformly unchanged.  Those officially jobless for six months or longer remained at 4.1 million, the civilian labor force participation rate was still 63.2%, and there were still 7.9 million working part-time who would like to work full-time.  Most noteworthy was the jump in people counted as being out of the labor force, up over 2 million to 90,632,000. 

The AJSN (American Job Shortage Number) was extremely close to 20 million, broken down as follows:

Total Latent Demand % Latent Demand Total
Unemployed 10,885,000 90 9,796,500
Discouraged 852,000 90 766,800
Family Responsibilities 215,000 30 64,500
In School or Training 324,000 50 162,000
Ill Health or Disability 157,000 10 15,700
Other 754,000 30 226,200
Did Not Search for Work In  Previous Year 2,943,000 80 2,354,400
Not Available to Work Now 530,000 30 159,000
Do Not Want a Job 84,858,000 5 4,242,900
Non-Civilian, Institutionalized, and Unaccounted For, 15+ 9,449,940 10 944,994
American Expatriates 6,320,000 20 1,264,000
TOTAL     19,996,994

Of the AJSN components, the number of unemployed, down 577,000, and the estimate of people who did not search for work in the previous year, down 443,000, accounted for almost the entire drop.  (The AJSN is not seasonally adjusted.)   The increase in those claiming no interest in working offset smaller numbers in almost all of the other categories.  Since the data is for September, it is unaffected by early October’s partial government shutdown.

Compared with September 2012, a year earlier, the AJSN is down about 730,000, from 20.73 million.  Since then the number of unemployed is down 857,000, those wanting to work but not looking for at least a year are 335,000 fewer, and the count of people saying they do not want jobs at all has grown by 2.5 million. 

All in all, the September employment data fits closely with 2013’s consistent pattern.  It again showed a small gain in jobs beyond population increase, but more people leaving the labor force, this time by deciding they were done working.  My general comments, so, still hold:  it is good but hardly great, the number of departing workers explains more than anything else, the long-term unemployed and partially jobless are still there, and we would need a decade or more of months like this to be back to pre-2008 numbers.  Next month’s figures, which should not include the 800,000 government workers whose pay was only delayed but will show some secondary shutdown effects, will tell more.  In the meantime, the American jobs situation is business as usual.  


Friday, October 18, 2013

After the Shutdown: Where Are We Going from Here?

The not-so-long partial government shutdown is over.  What will happen now?  Seven probable outcomes:

First, there will be immediate backlash against the Tea Party Representatives.  They, after all, drove the Republican Party to what even they admit was a nearly unmitigated loss.  I don’t think the charming idea of prosecuting them for sedition that I read in Facebook today will go anywhere (I call it charming since it’s a mirror image of their calls to impeach Obama), but there could be more serious attempts for recall elections. 

Second, the Republicans as a group will move to the center.  Nobody gets elected President without a lot of support from it, and they know that.  More locally, while some House incumbents with far-right views are close enough to what their constituents want, remarkably few Senators in the most anti-government third or so of the party will be competitive in 2014.  A lot can happen in a year, but for now centrist voters will avoid those with attitudes similar to those causing our recent problems.

Third, the two largest winners, except for Barack Obama, may prove to be moderate Republicans Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.  If you look at www.sportsbook.ag, a betting site with political predictions sober enough that you can put money down on them, you see the most likely Republican to be elected President is Christie, eight-to-one against.  He is followed by Bush, who has not even confirmed he will run, tied with the breather-taking Marco Rubio at 12-to-1.  Look for those odds to shorten soon, and for the chances of the likes of Ted Cruz to evaporate.

Fourth, the Standard & Poor’s estimate of the economy losing $24 billion is an overstatement.  Though a lot of business, particularly associated with national parks, is gone forever, most of the closure’s effect amounts to the nuisance of a delay.   The 800,000 furloughed workers will get back pay, turning their time off into an 11-working-day vacation (they would have had October 14th anyway), but the true cost of their lost labor, given that many will be catching up over the next few weeks, will be less than their salaries and benefits. 

Fifth, there should be little permanent effect on the general state of American employment.  It will certainly cost something, but nothing noticeable over the course of the year.  There is hope, though, for more legislation, such as toward an infrastructure project, now that Republicans, who after all do not want to see their country deteriorate, figure to be more willing to work on problems.  Not much hope, though, as Obama has not yet sustained any focus on jobs.

Sixth, with early indications that signing up for Obamacare will be more popular than many expected, there will be the start of more medical professional employment.  There are simply not enough general-practice physicians to cover demand, and unless the AMA allows more to be trained, they will be replaced, as possible, by physician assistants, nurse practitioners, and various technicians.

Seventh, don’t worry about another shutdown when the agreed-upon government funding expires January 15th.  Neither side will want to go through it again, especially when Republicans fully comprehend how much trouble they are already in with the electorate.

So, back to normal.  A good political cartoon concept would be a morning-after street scene, sort of like New Orleans’s Bourbon Street, but with, instead of beer cups and hot dog wrappers on the ground, elephant and donkey droppings.  Everything will be cleaned up, within weeks if not right away, and we will be fully back to business.  The jobs crisis, though, is still permanent. 

Note:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revised data release schedule was made available today.  September’s Employment Situation, including the national unemployment rate, will be out this Tuesday, October 22nd, and the October issue will be delayed a week from November 1 to November 8.  Accordingly, the AJSN will be posted on this blog on those days, the September issue in the evening of the 22nd and the October issue on Friday morning the 8th.      

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Index of Work’s New Age Blog Posts – 2012 and 2013 – By General Subject

AJSN – American Job Shortage Number

AJSN Data for 13 Months and 20 Years, and What it Means – October 4, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/10/ajsn-data-for-13-months-and-20-years.html

August AJSN Down 500,000 – America Now Fewer Than 21 Million Jobs Short – September 6, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/09/august-ajsn-down-500000-america-now.html

July Jobs Data: Slight Improvement, but America Still 21.4 Million Short – August 2, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/08/july-jobs-data-slight-improvement-but.html

June AJSN: America’s Now Short More Than 21.5 Million Jobs as Seasonal Patterns Dominate – July 5, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/07/june-ajsn-americas-now-short-more-than.html

May AJSN Up Over 700,000, as 20.8 Million Americans Would Work If It Were Readily Available – June 7, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/06/may-ajsn-up-over-700000-as-208-million.html

April Jobs Data: Treading Water, with AJSN Still Over 20 Million – May 3, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/05/april-jobs-data-treading-water-with.html

March AJSN – Under 21 Million, But Labor Force Shrinks More – April 5, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/04/march-ajsn-under-21-million-but-labor.html

February: Unemployment Dropped, and AJSN is Better Also – March 8, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/03/today-instead-of-on-usual-first-friday.html

January’s Job Data: Official Unemployment Creeps Up 0.1%, but AJSN Jumps to 22.4 Million – February 1, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/02/januarys-job-data-official-unemployment.html

Official Unemployment Steady, but December AJSN Shows Latent Demand for American Jobs is Up Over 400,000, To 21.0 Million – January 4, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/01/official-unemployment-steady-but.html

November AJSN: Unemployment is Down – but Latent Demand for Jobs is Up – December 7, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/12/november-ajsn-unemployment-is-down-but.html

October AJSN Shows Latent Demand for 20.6 Million American Jobs, Slightly Down from September – November 2, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/11/october-ajsn-shows-latent-demand-for.html

September AJSN Shows Latent Demand for 20.7 Million American Jobs, Down 1.3 Million – October 5, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/10/september-ajsn-shows-latent-demand-for.html

Historical American Job Shortage Number Data, and How the AJSN Fits In – September 16, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/09/historical-american-job-shortage-number.html

AJSN Revised and Updated - We're Currently 22 Million Jobs Short – September 9, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/09/ajsn-revised-and-updated-were-currently_9.html

Introducing the American Job Shortage Number – September 4, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/09/introducing-works-new-age-american-job.html

In the News

The Government Shutdown and Jobs – October 11, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-government-shutdown-and-jobs.html

Obama in Galesburg: On Jobs, Half Misguided, Half Waiting for Action – July 26, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/07/obama-in-galesburg-on-jobs-half.html

Five Reasons Why We’re Pursuing the Wrong Problems – June 28, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/06/five-reasons-why-were-pursuing-wrong.html

Around the Horn on Jobs – End of March, 2013 – March 29, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/03/around-horn-on-jobs-end-of-march-2013.html

What’s Really Being Sequestered – Progress on Jobs – March 2, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-really-being-sequestered-progress.html

State of the Union Address, and Response: Too Little on Jobs – February 15, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/02/state-of-union-address-and-response-too.html

The Sequester, The Country, and Work – February 8, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-sequester-country-and-work.html

Romney and Obama Similar on Jobs - And Both are Lacking – October 19, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/10/romney-and-obama-similar-on-jobs-and.html

One Way or Another, Ryan is Good News – August 14, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/08/one-way-or-another-ryan-is-good-news.html

What's Happening with the Presidential Campaign? – August 1, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/08/whats-happening-with-presidential.html

All Quiet on the Jobs Front... For Now – July 3, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/07/all-silent-on-jobs-front-for-now.html

May's Jobs Numbers - The Sad Reality – June 1, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/06/mays-jobs-numbers-sad-reality.html

The Jobs Crisis – Solutions and Non-Solutions

Could Payments for Online Information Replace Jobs? – September 13, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/09/could-payments-for-online-information.html

Four Casinos in New York State – A Winner for Jobs and Beyond – August 22, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/08/four-casinos-in-new-york-state-winner.html

Eight Cul-de-Sacs on the Way to Solving the Jobs Crisis – August 9, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/08/eight-cul-de-sacs-on-way-to-solving.html

Farm Subsidies Stink like Fresh Bull-You-Know-What… and Cost Jobs Too – July 19, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/07/farm-subsidies-stink-like-fresh-bull.html

Jaron Lanier’s Version of Work’s New Age – Fresh Ideas on a Permanent Problem – June 21, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/06/jaron-laniers-version-of-works-new-age.html

Four Arguments for Shorter Working Hours – May 10, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/05/four-arguments-for-shorter-working-hours.html

Minimum Wage and Guaranteed Income: A Paradox – February 21, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/02/minimum-wage-and-guaranteed-income.html

Right to Work Laws, Minimum Wages, and Work’s New Age – December 14, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/12/right-to-work-laws-minimum-wages-and.html

Can We Finally Shrink Our Working Hours? – July 17, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/07/can-we-finally-shrink-our-working-hours.html

Understanding the Jobs Crisis

Vonnegut as Jobs Prophet – August 16, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/08/vonnegut-as-jobs-prophet.html

Permanence of the Jobs Crisis Gets Good Press - and Dissenters – May 17, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/05/permanence-of-jobs-crisis-gets-good.html

7 Unemployment Charts Which Do, Indeed, Tell the Truth about Jobs – March 15, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/03/7-unemployment-charts-which-do-indeed.html

What Will Happen to Jobs and the Jobs Problem by 2030? – November 21, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/11/what-will-happen-to-jobs-and-jobs.html

Soaring College Debt Means One Thing: Education Levels Will Fall – October 27, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/10/soaring-college-debt-means-one-thing.html

The Jobs Outlook for 2013 and Beyond in 8 Bullet Points – September 29, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012_09_01_archive.html

Kurt Vonnegut - And Us - On Lives Without Work – July 24, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/07/kurt-vonnegut-and-us-on-lives-without.html

Employers Can't Blame the Workforce – July 11, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/07/employers-cant-blame-workforce.html

Who is Responsible For the Jobs Crisis? – June 25, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/06/who-is-responsible-for-jobs-crisis.html

Agriculture, Manufacturing, Services... Then What? – June 11, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/06/agriculture-manufacturing-services-then.html

The Most Important Jobs Number – May 7, 2012 – http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/05/most-important-jobs-number.html

Generations and Opportunities – May 1, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/05/generations-and-jobs.html

We Need Both Sides – April 20, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/04/we-need-both-sides.html

Public Policy

Jobs in America: What Obama Could Say, and Start – September 27, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/09/jobs-in-america-what-obama-could-say.html

Continuing the Stimulus Is Not Perfect, But Clear-Cut for Now – September 20, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/09/continuing-stimulus-is-not-perfect-but.html

Civil Rights: Fifty Years Out, and Two Paths to Choose From – August 30, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/08/civil-rights-fifty-years-out-and-two.html

Five Things Obama and Congress Can and Should Do on Jobs – November 9, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/11/what-obama-and-congress-should-do-on.html

What Stimuli Would Help Now? – August 8, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/08/what-stimuli-would-help-now.html

Social Security and Jobs – April 26, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/04/social-security-and-jobs.html

Adjusting to the Jobs Crisis

Defining Prosperity Down? Yes, We’d Better Do That – July 12, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/07/defining-prosperity-down-yes-wed-better.html

Why College Is Overrated, and How to Benefit From It Without Crushing Debt – May 31, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/05/why-college-is-overrated-and-how-to.html

Americans Don’t Understand Each Other – April 19, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/04/americans-dont-understand-each-other.html

Americans: Deal with What Is, Together, or Be Conquered – March 22, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/03/americans-deal-with-what-is-together-or.html

Specific Jobs and Careers

Internships in the Spotlight – Are they Abusive or Not? – June 14, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/06/internships-in-spotlight-are-they.html

No, Prospects are Not Golden for Science Graduates – April 26, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/04/no-prospects-are-not-golden-for-science.html

New Book Shows What Careers and Jobs Will Be Good! Choosing a Lasting Career To Be Available Soon – January 25, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-book-shows-what-careers-and-jobs.html

How Can We Evaluate Jobs and Careers? – January 9, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/01/how-can-we-evaluate-jobs-and-careers.html

On Careers, Graduates Need More Than Current Pay and Today’s Growth – December 21, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/12/on-careers-graduates-need-more-than.html

What Careers Have the Best Creature Comforts? – November 30, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/11/what-careers-have-best-creature-comforts.html

Small Businesses – Not a Widespread Jobs Solution – November 15, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/11/small-businesses-not-widespread-jobs.html

What Career Fields Best Resist Automation and Globalization? – October 12, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-career-fields-best-resist.html

What Jobs will Be Good? Twenty Lasting Career Principles – September 23, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/09/what-jobs-will-be-good-twenty-lasting.html

Internships in Work's New Age – May 23, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/05/internships-in-works-new-age.html

The Best Careers – May 21, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/05/best-careers.html

Other and General

Bill Evans, And His Words – May 24, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/05/bill-evans-and-his-words.html

Work’s New Age Blog – One Year and Counting! – April 11, 2013 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2013/04/works-new-age-blog-one-year-and-counting.html

The Best Books on Job-Searching Tactics – August 28, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012_08_01_archive.html

Career Books I Recommend - Personality and Aptitude Matching – August 21, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/08/career-books-i-recommend-personality.html

Welcome to the Work's New Age blog! – April 10, 2012 - http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/04/welcome-to-works-new-age-blog.html

Friday, October 11, 2013

The Government Shutdown and Jobs

Since nonessential but large sections of the U.S. federal government were closed at month’s beginning, there has been little press about the jobs crisis.  Except for rueful notes that the September unemployment numbers would not be on time, the pace of articles considering that our work situation might be more than just the slowest recession recovery ever has gone from a sprint to a slow walk.  The shutdown has, of course, has real effects on jobs, none of them good.  What are the main ones?

First, the closure has taken about a million Americans, immediately if not presumably permanently, out of the workforce.  Even though history and everyone’s published opinions agree that furloughed government employees will eventually be paid as if they had been on duty as usual, they are currently not getting paychecks, not coming to work, not going to lunch at nearby restaurants, not using as much gas, and not generally consuming as much.  It doesn’t take much analysis to realize that restaurants open for lunch in many areas in Washington and some elsewhere have seen their business plummet.  As people make longer-term arrangements and modify their lives accordingly, this collateral damage will both intensify and spread as the impasse remains.  Few affected businesses will hire much until it is over.

Second, it is bad for markets.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average, despite good news such as the calming appointment of Janet Yellen to the Fed chair, dropped 327 points from September 30 to October 9.  Yesterday, only small signs of a partial reconciliation caused the average to regain all but 4 of those.   Falling stock prices, which will surely resume if no agreement is reached, help nobody, and when they do that, even those in the 1% will perceive they can spend less.  Bear markets mean weaker consumer confidence.

Third, the shutdown is terrible for business planning.  What can they expect for next year, or even next month?  Precisely how much will they be damaged by the absence, not only of federal workers being paid, but of federal services?  How would you like to be responsible for predicting the number of next month’s customers at a large hotel near Hot Springs or Carlsbad Caverns?  How about at a Washington convention center?  Whatever they decide to do, it will probably involve fewer workers.

Fourth, government hiring, of course, will be down to almost nothing for a while.  With these jobs, as with many dependent on related business, efficiency will have a chance to creep into later workforce decisions.  Once government departments and other organizations’ managers see how they did with too few people, they may use that knowledge to slow down or even stop adding new employees later on.

We have one large question for the government shutdown, on which we can only speculate.  How long will it continue?  It may well be settled along with the October 17th deadline for raising the debt ceiling deadline, necessary for Washington to legally pay all of its bills.  Yet that date could pass, with partial or no resolution, as the two Congress sides may have in effect taken the reverse gears out of their tanks.  If they perceive they absolutely cannot back down, even partially, the shutdown could blow past the 21-day record set in the outage of 1996 and go on even into 2014.  Their minds are made up, and they may not be willing to be confused by the facts.  An open civil war of sorts within the Republican Party could break out, if the moderate side takes a stand against the others, but if they do not, there may be no reason for the deadlock to be broken. 

All in all, even this restricted government shutdown is very bad for the economy.  We may think of it as the equivalent of an artificial recession, cutting employment and bringing much prosperity down with it.  As for monitoring it, other data sources will fill some of the gap, but the next set of Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs data may not arrive for a long time.  But we will know, whether the unknown official unemployment rate is 7.3%, 7.8%, 8.8%, or 12.8%, and whether we live in Washington or across the country, that the nation’s finances are getting worse.  And in the meantime, there is still no reason for the jobs crisis to end.

Friday, October 4, 2013

AJSN Data for 13 Months and 20 Years, and What it Means

This morning there is no federal government jobs data.  Many offices in Washington and elsewhere are shut down, with only three of 2,400 Bureau of Labor Statistics employees declared essential.  Accordingly, September’s American Job Shortage Number, showing latent demand for new work opportunities in the United States, will need to wait.

For this reason as well as the AJSN reaching its first anniversary last month, it is a good time to look at how that measure has progressed over the past year, and since 1994.  What has happened with it?  First, August 2012 through August 2013.

Month AJSN Month AJSN Month AJSN
Aug-12 22,000,584 Jan-13 22,374,210 Jun-13 21,572,986
Sep-12 20,726,319 Feb-13 21,757,395 Jul-13 21,460,521
Oct-12 20,561,404 Mar-13 20,937,380 Aug-13 20,971,503
Nov-12 20,602,440 Apr-13 20,088,416    
Dec-12 21,023,025 May-13 20,814,951    
Since the AJSN is not seasonally adjusted, it fluctuates more than measures that are.  It is still within a range of about 10% from top to bottom.

The AJSN is the sum of 90% of the number of officially unemployed, plus shares from 5% to 90% of those with other employment statuses.  When we subtract the number of those officially jobless, what do we get? 


As we see, there has been some variation in the monthly data for other employment statuses, but they have generally increased.  Here is how much of it is from official unemployment and how much of it is from everything else:


Comparing non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment to the AJSN gets us the following:


We can measure per capita AJSN to compensate for the past year’s American population increase of about 220,000 per month, and for the share of those too young.  When we do that, we see:

Again, mainly just fluctuation, with, most recently, one missing job for about each 12 people old enough to work. 

Here are the same charts for the past 20 July’s:

Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN
1994 15.7 million 1999 13.6 million 2004 16.0 million 2009 23.3 million
1995 15.0 million 2000 13.3 million 2005 15.6 million 2010 23.5 million
1996 14.9 million 2001 14.2 million 2006 15.4 million 2011 23.4 million
1997 14.1 million 2002 16.2 million 2007 15.3 million 2012 22.5 million
1998 13.9 million 2003 16.7 million 2008 17.3 million 2013 21.5 million



Most important from these is how the AJSN minus unemployment level keeps rising, and how the per capita AJSN is still at recessionary levels. 
I will keep you posted on when the next month’s updates will be available.