Friday, October 4, 2013

AJSN Data for 13 Months and 20 Years, and What it Means

This morning there is no federal government jobs data.  Many offices in Washington and elsewhere are shut down, with only three of 2,400 Bureau of Labor Statistics employees declared essential.  Accordingly, September’s American Job Shortage Number, showing latent demand for new work opportunities in the United States, will need to wait.

For this reason as well as the AJSN reaching its first anniversary last month, it is a good time to look at how that measure has progressed over the past year, and since 1994.  What has happened with it?  First, August 2012 through August 2013.

Month AJSN Month AJSN Month AJSN
Aug-12 22,000,584 Jan-13 22,374,210 Jun-13 21,572,986
Sep-12 20,726,319 Feb-13 21,757,395 Jul-13 21,460,521
Oct-12 20,561,404 Mar-13 20,937,380 Aug-13 20,971,503
Nov-12 20,602,440 Apr-13 20,088,416    
Dec-12 21,023,025 May-13 20,814,951    
Since the AJSN is not seasonally adjusted, it fluctuates more than measures that are.  It is still within a range of about 10% from top to bottom.

The AJSN is the sum of 90% of the number of officially unemployed, plus shares from 5% to 90% of those with other employment statuses.  When we subtract the number of those officially jobless, what do we get? 


As we see, there has been some variation in the monthly data for other employment statuses, but they have generally increased.  Here is how much of it is from official unemployment and how much of it is from everything else:


Comparing non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment to the AJSN gets us the following:


We can measure per capita AJSN to compensate for the past year’s American population increase of about 220,000 per month, and for the share of those too young.  When we do that, we see:

Again, mainly just fluctuation, with, most recently, one missing job for about each 12 people old enough to work. 

Here are the same charts for the past 20 July’s:

Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN Year (July) AJSN
1994 15.7 million 1999 13.6 million 2004 16.0 million 2009 23.3 million
1995 15.0 million 2000 13.3 million 2005 15.6 million 2010 23.5 million
1996 14.9 million 2001 14.2 million 2006 15.4 million 2011 23.4 million
1997 14.1 million 2002 16.2 million 2007 15.3 million 2012 22.5 million
1998 13.9 million 2003 16.7 million 2008 17.3 million 2013 21.5 million



Most important from these is how the AJSN minus unemployment level keeps rising, and how the per capita AJSN is still at recessionary levels. 
I will keep you posted on when the next month’s updates will be available.


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