Friday, October 12, 2012

What Career Fields Best Resist Automation and Globalization?

In Work's New Age, the largest reasons for jobs to be lost are automation and globalization.  Automation generally comes down to two questions - how resistant a job is to robotics, and how resistant it is to computer algorithms and connectivity.  Globalization is a factor when a job does not need to be done locally.
Which career fields, in general, are most locally bound?  This table presents the average ratings within each of the 25 U.S. Department of Labor occupation groups, weighting each job equally, using ratings of 1 for low local boundness, 2 for medium, and 3 for high, in order from most to least locally bound:

Occupation Group
1 to 3 Scale
Average Result
Building and Grounds Cleaning     
3.00
Very Locally Bound
Construction and Extraction     
3.00
Very Locally Bound
Food Preparation and Serving     
3.00
Very Locally Bound
Personal Care and Service     
2.88
Very Locally Bound
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry     
2.86
Very Locally Bound
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair     
2.78
Very Locally Bound
Community and Social Service     
2.70
Very Locally Bound
Healthcare     
2.69
Very Locally Bound
Protective Service     
2.57
Very Locally Bound
Transportation and Material Moving     
2.31
Somewhat Locally Bound
Education, Training, and Library     
2.29
Somewhat Locally Bound
Entertainment and Sports     
2.25
Somewhat Locally Bound
Management     
2.07
Somewhat Locally Bound
Sales     
2.06
Somewhat Locally Bound
Production     
1.90
Somewhat Locally Bound
Office and Administrative Support     
1.89
Somewhat Locally Bound
Legal     
1.67
Somewhat Locally Bound
Life, Physical, and Social Science     
1.65
Somewhat Locally Bound
Media and Communications     
1.60
Somewhat Locally Bound
Architecture and Engineering     
1.30
Not Locally Bound
Arts and Design     
1.30
Not Locally Bound
Business and Financial     
1.28
Not Locally Bound
Math     
1.00
Not Locally Bound
Computer and Information Technology     
1.00
Not Locally Bound
Military     
1.00
Not Locally Bound
Overall Average
2.18
Somewhat Locally Bound


How about resistance to robotic technology?  When we use the same 1-2-3 system, also averaged among each job within each occupational group, we get this comparison:
Occupation Group
1 to 3 Scale
Average Result
Business and Financial     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Community and Social Service      
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Computer and Information Technology     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Education, Training, and Library     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Entertainment and Sports     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Legal      
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Life, Physical, and Social Science     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Management     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Math     
3.00
Very Resistant to Robotics
Architecture and Engineering     
2.93
Very Resistant to Robotics
Healthcare     
2.81
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Arts and Design     
2.80
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry     
2.71
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Personal Care and Service     
2.68
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Media and Communications     
2.60
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Sales     
2.59
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Food Preparation and Serving     
2.50
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Protective Service     
2.50
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair     
2.49
Generally Resistant to Robotics
Building and Grounds Cleaning     
2.17
Somewhat Resistant to Robotics
Office and Administrative Support     
2.11
Somewhat Resistant to Robotics
Transportation and Material Moving     
2.03
Somewhat Resistant to Robotics
Military     
2.00
Somewhat Resistant to Robotics
Construction and Extraction     
1.80
Somewhat Resistant to Robotics
Production     
1.19
Not Resistant to Robotics
Overall Average
2.45
Generally Resistant to Robotics


The third table shows susceptibility of a job to being automated through computing algorithms and computing connectivity.  Applying the same 1-2-3 scale job-by-job produces the following:
Occupation Group
1 to 3 Scale
Average Result
Building and Grounds Cleaning     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Food Preparation and Serving     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Military     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Personal Care and Service     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Protective Service     
3.00
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Construction and Extraction     
2.98
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Management     
2.93
Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Life, Physical, and Social Science     
2.74
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Community and Social Service     
2.70
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Transportation and Material Moving     
2.69
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Healthcare     
2.69
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Production     
2.68
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Math     
2.60
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Entertainment and Sports     
2.50
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Education, Training, and Library     
2.35
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Sales     
2.35
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Media and Communications     
2.30
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Arts and Design     
2.20
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Architecture and Engineering     
2.07
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Legal     
1.83
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Business and Financial     
1.80
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Office and Administrative Support     
1.74
Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Computer and Information Technology     
1.38
Not Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity
Overall Average
2.58
Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity

As you can see, to paraphrase Bob Dylan, some of the careers that have been first will later be last.  You will see a number of rather modest occupations close to the top, and some with excellent reputations and even consensus high future expectations near the bottom.  The

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