Three Months on Driverless Cars

One thing we can say about autonomous vehicles – their coverage is improving.  How about the vehicles themselves?

First, “Waymo Suspended Service in San Francisco After Its Cars Stalled During Power Outage” (Sonia A. Rao, Christina Morales and Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon, The New York Times, December 21^st).  That was just what the headline said, as during “an hourslong power outage… the ubiquitous self-driving cars” were “coming to a halt at darkened traffic signals, blocking traffic and angering drivers of regular vehicles that become stuck as a result,” so “tow truck operators said they had been towing Waymos for hours.”  So how can it be that “Waymo and other self-driving car companies design their vehicles so they can continue to operate when they lost access to wireless networks or when they encounter traffic lights that have lost power”?  Either they haven’t really been, or they found yet another exception.

Across the Pacific, “China Delays Plans for Mass Production of Self-Driving Cars After Accident” (Keith Bradsher, The New York Times, December 23^rd).  The mishap was “a crash of a Xiaomi SU7 in late March” that “killed three women, all university students.”  That’s all, though “news of previous accidents involving assisted driving had been suppressed by China’s censors.”  Three deaths, nine months later?  I guess the United States is not the only country to strain at the gnat of a few driverless fatalities, while swallowing the camel of tens of thousands from driver error.

Back to here, “Tesla Robotaxis Are Big on Wall St. but Lagging on Roads” (Jack Ewing, The New York Times, December 25^th).  The company’s “share price hit a record this month,” and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said once again that they were “really just at the beginning of scaling quite massively,” which is what the firm will need to do if it is to catch up with Waymo, which “said this month it had completed 14 million paid rides this year,” and is now operating in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Atlanta, with “plans to expand to 20 more cities in 2026, including Dallas, Washington, Miami and London.”  So, behind the downbeat headline was the best driverless car news of the year.

“Can autonomous trucks really make highways safer?” (Kurt Knutsson, Fox News, January 15^th).  Fox’s technical expert claimed that “Kodiak AI, a leading provider of AI-powered autonomous driving technology, has spent years quietly proving that self-driving trucks can work in the real world,” and “is already doing this on real roads,” including cross-country routes, with three million miles logged, although they have “a safety driver behind the wheel.”  Concerns remain, though at least the chance of the headline, “Driverless Big Rigs Are Coming to American Highways, and Soon” (Jim Motavalli, The New York Times, March 17^th), coming true seem good.

On another competitor, “Uber unveils a new robotaxi with no driver behind the wheel” (Kurt Knutsson, Fox News, January 27^th).  The vehicles are being built by Lucid Group, and “Nuro provides the self-driving system.”  They are now being tested in the Bay Area, “on public streets rather than private test tracks,” and have displays so “riders can see how the robotaxi perceives the road and plans its next move,” showing “lane changes, yielding behavior, slowing at traffic lights and the planned drop-off point.”  So, “if you use Uber, driverless rides may soon appear as an option.”  Although pluralism is favorable, safety – and consistent, trouble-free operation – will remain most important for customers.

Another industry leader’s move appeared in “Waymo to bring driverless cars to Chicago, eyes Midwest expansion” (Bradford Betz, Fox Business, February 26^th).  It is only “laying the early groundwork for operations in the city, starting with mapping and manual vehicle testing,” but it still qualifies as a bold direction, given that weather in the Midwest can be more challenging than that in established markets like Phoenix and Los Angeles, and Chicago is also “known for… complex traffic conditions.”  If it does well there, it can do well almost anywhere, except maybe Boston, in the country, and that should also put many people at ease, letting them benefit from Waymo’s claim that their vehicles are achieving “up to” a 90% reduction in “serious injuries or worse collisions” and 92% fewer pedestrian impacts. 

Back to Musk’s company, where “Tesla builds a car with no steering wheel.  Now what?” (again Kurt Knutsson, Fox News, March 9^th).  When humans are often positioned, ready to take over, inside such vehicles, is what they call the Cybercab as aggressive as it seems?  Yes, since currently “Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards in the United States require vehicles to include basic driver controls,” and per the author “trust is not built on promises.  It is built on experience.  On proof.  On the feeling that if something goes wrong, you can step in.  The Cybercab removes that option entirely.”  This one may remain purely a concept item, with testing but no passengers, for years, but it is hard to see how it could be accepted soon. 

Overall, where are we with driverless cars?  Better than the last few times I wrote on them.  Especially in the case of Waymo’s 14 million, they are sort of stealthily building up a good track record, in the niches, not including private ownership, that they have developed.  They still have bugs I would have thought had been fixed on 2010s test courses, but perhaps their success will spur their developers to bear down more.  I hope to have an update this summer, and hope even more that it will show progress from here.  It will benefit us massively if it does.