Another Big Jobs Report – New Positions Up, Unemployment Down, AJSN Shows Latent Demand Down To 15.4 Million

One more critical Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary.  One more set of data exceeding expectations and refusing to indicate any movement toward recession.  One more recent-record-breaking American Job Shortage Number (AJSN).  One more time when the peripheral data followed.

We gained 253,000 net new nonfarm payroll positions, almost half again the two 180,000 published estimates.  The seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment rates both fell, the latter by 0.5%, to reach 3.4% and 3.1%.  The numbers of officially jobless people did the same, and are now at 5.7 million (adjusted and roughly rounded) and 5.146 million (unadjusted).  The count of employed added 434,000 to get to 161,075,000.  The number of those working part-time for economic reasons, or maintaining part-time employment while looking for full-time opportunities, shed 200,000 to 3.9 million.  Average private nonfarm payroll wages even got in on the act, rising 16 cents per hour, comfortably above current inflation, to $33.36.  On the non-gaining side, the two indicators showing how common it is for people to be working or close to it, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, stayed the same, not improving but holding the previous month’s gains, still 60.4% and 62.6%.  The only statistic I track in this series that got worse was the count of long-term unemployed, which added 100,000 to 1.2 million.

The AJSN, the Royal Flush Press metric showing how many positions in addition to those advertised could fast be filled if all knew they would be easy to get, lost almost half a million as follows:

 

Compared with a year before, the AJSN was729,000 lower, with real shrinkages in not only the number unemployed but the number of those wanting work but not looking for it over at least the past 12 months.  The counts of those claiming discouragement and temporarily unavailable also fell significantly.  Noteworthy also was a reduction of almost one million, or over 13%, of those in the military, in institutions, or off the grid.  The share of the AJSN from those officially jobless reached a long-time low at 30.0%, off from 34.3%, and this was the first month in at least eight years where more latent demand came from those uninterested in working, even at its 5% contribution, than from those unemployed.

What else can we say about this morning’s report?  In American employment, these are among the best times we have ever had.  More and more people are finding work, and those officially jobless continue shrinking in number.  If full employment is 4%, something I once heard, what are these levels?  How much more favorable can the other numbers get?  We don’t know, but their improvement pace is still brisk.  Between March and April, our population increased less than 69,000 – we added more than three times as many new jobs.  Wages even gained.  Covid now appears to be fading, and hasn’t been a widespread employment impeder for a year.  We’re setting records now.  The turtle, once again, stretched heartily and moved in the right direction.