June Jobs Report: Both Seeking and Hiring Vigorous, AJSN Says Latent Demand Up 400,000

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was supposed to be especially important, especially for investments and interest rates.  So what happened?

At 209,000, the number of net new nonfarm payroll positions fell a sliver short of a 225,000 prediction.  Adjusted unemployment lost 0.1% to reach 3.6%, with the unadjusted variety up 0.4%, seasonally, to 3.8%.  Total employed increased 557,000 to 161,559,000, with the number of people not interested down 867,000, on top of last month’s 1.15 million, to just over 93 million.  The count of unemployed, measured seasonally, was off 100,000 but actually rose 650,000. 

While the number of those officially jobless for 27 weeks or longer, at 1.1 million, was down 100,000, the count working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping shorter-hours positions while seeking full-time ones, soared over 400,000 and is now 4.2 million.  The labor force participation rate was 62.6% for the fourth straight month, and the employment-population ratio sat at 60.3 percent.  Average hourly private nonfarm payroll earnings increased 12 cents, more than inflation, and are now $33.58.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the measure showing how many more opportunities could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy and routine to get, increased 380,000 to the following:

 

People with the statuses of marginal attachment, the second through eighth rows here, sharply decreased in number, with the three largest changes reducing the AJSN.  The share of the metric from those formally unemployed increased 2.8% to 34.1%, meaning that almost two thirds of those not working who would accept a suitable but now unadvertised position have another status.  Compared with a year before, the AJSN has lost 268,000, most of which was from fewer people wanting work but not looking for it during the past year.

What happened this time?  There are ever more jobs, more people wanting them, more getting and keeping them, and more people seeking more hours.  Despite our aging population, the number of people not in the labor force fell by one million.  Latent demand increased again, despite net new positions outstripping our population rises, as additional people – two million more than in April – said they are interested in work.  The employment situation is dynamic all around, and that is nothing to take for granted.  The turtle, once again, took a robust step forward.