November’s Employment Data Sluggish and Worse – AJSN Shows Latent Demand Up 110,000 to 17 Million

Here we are with the first Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Summary since last month, the first data in two, and the first timely information in three.  Was it worth the wait?

The headline number, the count of net new nonfarm payroll positions, exceeded its 45,000 estimate but not by much – 64,000.  Seasonally unadjusted unemployment stayed at 4.3% but the adjusted figure gained 0.2% to 4.6%, since September.  The unadjusted number of unemployed rose 200,000 to 7.8 million, of which 1.9 million were designated as long-term or out for 27 weeks or longer, up 100,000.  The labor force participation rate gained 0.1% to 62.5%, but the employment-population ratio, best showing how common it is for Americans to be working, lost the same amount to 59.6%.  Average private nonfarm payroll earnings grew 19 cents, less than inflation, since September, to reach $36.86.  The alarming change was to the count of those working part-time for economic reasons, or holding on to less than full-time opportunities while looking thus far unsuccessfully for full-time ones.  That soared 900,000, to 5.5 million.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, which shows how many additional positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy to get, increased modestly to the following:

The largest change came from those discouraged, adding almost 130,000 to the metric, followed by unemployment itself which contributed 69,000 more.  The main subtraction came from people wanting to work but not searching for it for a year or more, which took away 62,000.  Thirty-nine point one percent of the AJSN came from those officially jobless, up 0.2% from September.

Compared with November 2024, the AJSN rose 1.2 million, half of that from official unemployment, and most of the rest from those discouraged and those not looking for at least a year. 

What does all that add up to?  Adding the modest increases in unadjusted unemployment (+172,000), those not in the labor force (+156,000), and those claiming no interest in work (+175,000) does not change anything much.  It was a torpid month or two, with few positive outcomes.  The fair number of new jobs was offset by what we hope is not a new level for those working part-time for economic reasons.  We also don’t like the rising unemployment rate, the highest in four years and in need of more front-line attention.  Without knowing what he did in October, we saw the turtle stay just where he was the month after.