This Morning’s Jobs Report Reflects a Peaceful and Prosperous July, with AJSN Showing 88,000 Lower Latent Demand

The new Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was not expected to show any sudden changes, and it didn’t. 

I saw estimates of 180,000 and 200,000 net new nonfarm payroll positions, straddling the 187,000 outcome.  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate shed a tenth of a percentage point to reach 3.5%, and the unadjusted variety held at 3.8%.  The count of jobless fell 200,000 to 5.8 million, with that of those with jobs up 433,000 to 161,982,000.  On the heels of two one-million-range drops, the number claiming no interest in work took a breather, gaining 25,000 to 93,070,000.  Long-term unemployed, or those jobless for 27 weeks or longer, reversed its 100,000 June improvement, returning to 1.2 million, but the number working part-time for economic reasons, or looking unsuccessfully for full-time work while keeping one or more shorter-hours propositions, dropped 200,000 to 4.0 million.  The two measures showing how many Americans have jobs or are one step away, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio, held at 62.6% and gained 0.1% to 60.4% respectively.  Average private nonfarm payroll hourly earnings added 16 cents, well over inflation, and are now $33.74.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the statistic showing how many currently unavailable positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy and routine to get, came in as follows:

The largest AJSN change from June came from those wanting work but not looking for it for the past 12 months, and that reduced the outcome by only 111,000.  A rise in those claiming discouragement and a fall in those wanting work but currently unavailable for it were the only inputs adding or subtracting more than 18,000.  The share of the AJSN from those officially unemployed increased 0.3% to 34.4%.

Compared with a year before, the AJSN has lost 379,000, over 80% from a reduced count of those wanting a position but not looking for it for 12 months. 

So – did anything happen here?  Yes, although the changes were small, we continued on the right track, including people rejoining the labor force.  We are still adding more jobs than our population increases can absorb.  Although the count of those saying they do not want to work went up, that was a trivial amount when compared with the number of Americans reaching 60, 65, 70, or any other reasonable retirement age.  Our national employment status is vibrant and robust.  Once more, the turtle took a solid step forward.