Another seven days of frightful news. Here are its headlines and subheads:
“Eighteen states set daily case records in the past week,
and 40 have had 14-day increases in cases per capita” – The New York Times,
July 26th
“U.S. GDP Fell 9.5 Percent (in the second quarter)” – The
New York Times, July 30th
“The U.S. economy’s contraction in the second quarter was
the worst on record” – Same
“1.43 million filed new state unemployment claims last
week,” for the 19th straight of over a million – Same
“U.S. Surpasses 150,000 Coronavirus Deaths, Far Eclipsing
Projections” – The New York Times, another July 30th article
“Baseball’s Dumb Decision” – of a July 29th-published
letter written to the Times by Kenneth L. Zimmerman, in which he pointed
out that “17 as of this writing” players and coaches on one team alone – the
Miami Marlins – had recently tested positive, and said “allowing the Major
League Baseball season to be played in the middle of a deadly pandemic is the
worst decision the league has made since allowing Roseanne Barr to sing the
national anthem 30 years ago.”
“Coronavirus in the U.S: Latest Map and Case Count” – same
source, July 30th. This article’s
headline wasn’t scary, but it showed 68,000-plus new cases and 1,400-plus
deaths the previous day alone. The Deep
South, including and especially Florida, is doing the worst now. “New cases are decreasing” in Arizona, South
Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Vermont, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but are “mostly
the same” or rising everywhere else.
And, though a bit older, this chart, where all you need to see is the shape of the curves:
And, though a bit older, this chart, where all you need to see is the shape of the curves:
And now, to adjust our expectations, along comes “A Vaccine
Reality Check.” This piece by Sarah
Zhang, listed as from July in The Atlantic, told us why, even if one of
those arrives as early as it reasonably can, “it certainly will not immediately
return life to normal.” Our central
government, lately ineffective even when competent, “will have to allocate
doses, perhaps through a patchwork of state and local health departments with
no existing infrastructure for vaccinating adults at scale” to those are sure
they want it, now only about half of adult Americans. Zhang projected five months, or December, for
“a safe and effective vaccine,” which I presume includes distribution. In the meantime, “without the measures which
have beat back the virus in much of Europe and Asia, there will continue to be
more outbreaks, more school closings, more loneliness, more deaths ahead.” The good news is that “at least six”
different versions are in “or about to enter” the third and final phase of human
testing, which “will take several more months,” and “the high and rising rates
of COVID-19 in the United States do make it easier to test vaccine candidate
here.”
Then, we will get a series of ugly disagreements. We can sensibly agree that healthcare workers
should get the first vaccinations, but who after that? People in states with highest infection
rates, rewarding them for their less prudent behavior? Those in the Northeast as appreciation for
their good conduct, who need it immediately the least? Blacks, because their lives Matter, even if
that would be obvious bigotry? Those whose
local governments are most prepared to distribute it, punishing those not as
lucky? I could easily see the first virus
distribution ready for, say, December 1st, but a month or two of
legal motions making us all wait and all lose.
Accordingly, while we appear to be on the path to recovery, and a
vaccine still seems our only chance to start that within the next year, we
still have many steps to walk before then.
What will happen? I
forecast a vaccine ready by year’s end, with dissemination, while muddled,
piecemeal, divisive, resource-constrained, and court-hobbled, to be 95%
completed by the end of March. That is
eight months from now, so we must maintain patience. Then we can work out what life will be like
in America after that. Much more on that
huge issue will follow in this space in the weeks and months to come.