Secondary measures were almost uniformly unchanged. Those officially jobless for six months or
longer remained at 4.1 million, the civilian labor force participation rate was
still 63.2%, and there were still 7.9 million working part-time who would like
to work full-time. Most noteworthy was
the jump in people counted as being out of the labor force, up over 2 million
to 90,632,000.
The AJSN (American Job Shortage Number) was extremely close
to 20 million, broken down as follows:
Of the AJSN components, the number of unemployed, down 577,000, and the estimate of people who did not search for work in the previous year, down 443,000, accounted for almost the entire drop. (The AJSN is not seasonally adjusted.) The increase in those claiming no interest in working offset smaller numbers in almost all of the other categories. Since the data is for September, it is unaffected by early October’s partial government shutdown.
AJSN
SEPTEMBER 2013 |
Total | Latent Demand % | Latent Demand Total |
Unemployed | 10,885,000 | 90 | 9,796,500 |
Discouraged | 852,000 | 90 | 766,800 |
Family Responsibilities | 215,000 | 30 | 64,500 |
In School or Training | 324,000 | 50 | 162,000 |
Ill Health or Disability | 157,000 | 10 | 15,700 |
Other | 754,000 | 30 | 226,200 |
Did Not Search for Work In Previous Year | 2,943,000 | 80 | 2,354,400 |
Not Available to Work Now | 530,000 | 30 | 159,000 |
Do Not Want a Job | 84,858,000 | 5 | 4,242,900 |
Non-Civilian, Institutionalized, and Unaccounted For, 15+ | 9,449,940 | 10 | 944,994 |
American Expatriates | 6,320,000 | 20 | 1,264,000 |
TOTAL | 19,996,994 |
Of the AJSN components, the number of unemployed, down 577,000, and the estimate of people who did not search for work in the previous year, down 443,000, accounted for almost the entire drop. (The AJSN is not seasonally adjusted.) The increase in those claiming no interest in working offset smaller numbers in almost all of the other categories. Since the data is for September, it is unaffected by early October’s partial government shutdown.
Compared with September 2012, a year earlier, the AJSN is
down about 730,000, from 20.73 million.
Since then the number of unemployed is down 857,000, those wanting to
work but not looking for at least a year are 335,000 fewer, and the count of people
saying they do not want jobs at all has grown by 2.5 million.
All in all, the September employment data fits closely with
2013’s consistent pattern. It again
showed a small gain in jobs beyond population increase, but more people leaving
the labor force, this time by deciding they were done working. My general comments, so, still hold: it is good but hardly great, the number of departing
workers explains more than anything else, the long-term unemployed and
partially jobless are still there, and we would need a decade or more of months
like this to be back to pre-2008 numbers.
Next month’s figures, which should not include the 800,000 government
workers whose pay was only delayed but will show some secondary shutdown
effects, will tell more. In the
meantime, the American jobs situation is business as usual.