One thing we can say about autonomous vehicles – their coverage is improving. How about the vehicles themselves?
First, “Waymo
Suspended Service in San Francisco After Its Cars Stalled During Power Outage”
(Sonia A. Rao, Christina Morales and Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon, The New
York Times, December 21st).
That was just what the headline said, as during “an hourslong power
outage… the ubiquitous self-driving cars” were “coming to a halt at darkened
traffic signals, blocking traffic and angering drivers of regular vehicles that
become stuck as a result,” so “tow truck operators said they had been towing
Waymos for hours.” So how can it be that
“Waymo and other self-driving car companies design their vehicles so they can
continue to operate when they lost access to wireless networks or when they
encounter traffic lights that have lost power”?
Either they haven’t really been, or they found yet another exception.
Across the
Pacific, “China Delays Plans for Mass Production of Self-Driving Cars After
Accident” (Keith Bradsher, The New York Times, December 23rd). The mishap was “a crash of a Xiaomi SU7 in
late March” that “killed three women, all university students.” That’s all, though “news of previous
accidents involving assisted driving had been suppressed by China’s
censors.” Three deaths, nine months
later? I guess the United States is not
the only country to strain at the gnat of a few driverless fatalities, while
swallowing the camel of tens of thousands from driver error.
Back to here,
“Tesla Robotaxis Are Big on Wall St. but Lagging on Roads” (Jack Ewing, The
New York Times, December 25th).
The company’s “share price hit a record this month,” and Tesla CEO Elon
Musk said once again that they were “really just at the beginning of scaling
quite massively,” which is what the firm will need to do if it is to catch up
with Waymo, which “said this month it had completed 14 million paid rides this
year,” and is now operating in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and
Atlanta, with “plans to expand to 20 more cities in 2026, including Dallas,
Washington, Miami and London.” So,
behind the downbeat headline was the best driverless car news of the year.
“Can
autonomous trucks really make highways safer?” (Kurt Knutsson, Fox News,
January 15th). Fox’s
technical expert claimed that “Kodiak AI, a leading provider of AI-powered
autonomous driving technology, has spent years quietly proving that
self-driving trucks can work in the real world,” and “is already doing this on
real roads,” including cross-country routes, with three million miles logged,
although they have “a safety driver behind the wheel.” Concerns remain, though at least the chance
of the headline, “Driverless Big Rigs Are Coming to American Highways, and Soon”
(Jim Motavalli, The New York Times, March 17th), coming true
seem good.
On another
competitor, “Uber unveils a new robotaxi with no driver behind the wheel” (Kurt
Knutsson, Fox News, January 27th). The vehicles are being built by Lucid Group,
and “Nuro provides the self-driving system.”
They are now being tested in the Bay Area, “on public streets rather
than private test tracks,” and have displays so “riders can see how the
robotaxi perceives the road and plans its next move,” showing “lane changes,
yielding behavior, slowing at traffic lights and the planned drop-off
point.” So, “if you use Uber, driverless
rides may soon appear as an option.”
Although pluralism is favorable, safety – and consistent, trouble-free
operation – will remain most important for customers.
Another
industry leader’s move appeared in “Waymo to bring driverless cars to Chicago,
eyes Midwest expansion” (Bradford Betz, Fox Business, February 26th). It is only “laying the early groundwork for
operations in the city, starting with mapping and manual vehicle testing,” but
it still qualifies as a bold direction, given that weather in the Midwest can
be more challenging than that in established markets like Phoenix and Los
Angeles, and Chicago is also “known for… complex traffic conditions.” If it does well there, it can do well almost
anywhere, except maybe Boston, in the country, and that should also put many
people at ease, letting them benefit from Waymo’s claim that their vehicles are
achieving “up to” a 90% reduction in “serious injuries or worse collisions” and
92% fewer pedestrian impacts.
Back to
Musk’s company, where “Tesla builds a car with no steering wheel. Now what?” (again Kurt Knutsson, Fox News,
March 9th). When humans are
often positioned, ready to take over, inside such vehicles, is what they call
the Cybercab as aggressive as it seems?
Yes, since currently “Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards in the
United States require vehicles to include basic driver controls,” and per the
author “trust is not built on promises.
It is built on experience. On proof. On the feeling that if something goes wrong,
you can step in. The Cybercab removes
that option entirely.” This one may
remain purely a concept item, with testing but no passengers, for years, but it
is hard to see how it could be accepted soon.
Overall,
where are we with driverless cars?
Better than the last few times I wrote on them. Especially in the case of Waymo’s 14 million,
they are sort of stealthily building up a good track record, in the niches, not
including private ownership, that they have developed. They still have bugs I would have thought had
been fixed on 2010s test courses, but perhaps their success will spur their
developers to bear down more. I hope to
have an update this summer, and hope even more that it will show progress from
here. It will benefit us massively if it
does.