Remote Work: The Pendulum Has Swung Back to the Office

As I have written repeatedly before, employer attitudes on working from home have oscillated back and forth over the past three-plus decades.  In the 2010s, hybrid labor, or putting in time in some combination between in the office and elsewhere, was getting reestablished, with glowing reviews of home productivity gains as well as work-life balance encouraging organizations to allow a large portion of time to be spent out of sight, and, as always, greatly out of mind.  By early 2020 the pendulum was moving toward not allowing that, but the pandemic necessitated it, with not only physical proximity issues but a greatly tightening labor market facilitating too many people to leave if they did not get the schedules they wanted.

Now, with Covid-19 almost no factor and unemployment, especially for information technology positions, growing, opposition to non-office work is again becoming entrenched.  What is the evidence of that?

One piece is the emerging of a new expression, as featured in “No more “coffee badging”” (Business Insider, July 21^st).  The term applies to “employees who badge in, get coffee, and leave shortly after to satisfy their (return to office) requirements.”  As of just before this date, Amazon was “getting serious” about ending this custom, and, as we shall see, there was more to come.

Especially in transition times, private organizations have varied greatly in what they allow.  One large public one, capable of setting national, multi-installation rules, is the subject of “To be remote or not to be?  That is the burning federal workplace question” (Gleb Tsipursky, Fox News, August 16^th).  While “many federal agencies have implemented hybrid work models, allowing leaders to refine strategies to adapt to evolving employee needs and mission-driven objectives,” “there is tension between this flexible approach and congressional legislative efforts such as the Back to Work Act of 2024… a bipartisan bill that seeks to limit telework for federal employees to no more than 40% of their workdays per pay period.”  That is broad-based and specific, and nothing that would have been taken seriously in 2014.

As well as the stick, businesses are also using the carrot.  “The Hotelification of Offices, With Signature Scents and Saltwater Spas” (Stacey Freed, The New York Times, August 18^th).  Such things have been controversial since they began appearing around the turn of the century, especially when remote work has been unfashionable.  This case is “the Springline complex in Menlo Park, Calif.,” where employees and others “are surrounded by a sense of comfort and luxury often found at high-end hotels:  off-white walls with a Roman clay finish, a gray-and-white marble coffee table and a white leather bench beneath an 8-by-4 resin canvas etched with the words “Hello, tomorrow,” and “hints of salty sea air, white water lily, dry musk and honeydew melon linger in the air.”  You get the idea.  While “companies have over the years improved their spaces in the hopes of getting more out of employees,” this kind of thing is now transparently designed to make people happier about reporting in person, and will not be immune to backlashes as they figure that out.

Another change many companies are making turned up in “Downtown’s lost prestige” (Bloomberg, August 27^th).  “The US office market is splitting in two:  Investors are writing off the value of older buildings downtown as newer developments outside traditional business hubs become prestige destinations,” resulting in “more than half-a-trillion dollars of value” being “erased from US offices from 2019 through 2023.”  Suburban desk farms are nothing new – I started my AT&T cubicle career at one 35 years ago – but employers are now motivated by “trying to get employees back to their desks” by moving to “low-crime neighborhoods with plenty of shopping and parking.”

The big story here was, though, “Bosses Rejoice!  Amazon Delivers the End of Hybrid Work” (Vanessa Fuhrmans, Katherine Bindley and Chip Cutter, The Wall Street Journal, September 21).  This article, on the front page of the Exchange section and embellished with a picture of an Amazon shipping box containing someone at a plain-looking office desk, was subtitled “If you thought your two days a week of work-from-home were safe, think again.  The CEO of one of America’s largest employers just called everyone back to the office full-time,” effective January 2^nd. 

It was clearly an overreaction – Amazon does not set national workplace policy – but documented a remarkably firm and all-encompassing decision.  Per the first story above, “until (the CEO’s) memo, 4½ years after the Covid-19 pandemic sent everyone home, bosses and employees had largely reached a truce on part-time remote work,” as, while “many company leaders looked out at their substantially empty offices in quiet exasperation,” they feared top-performer departure.  Amazon’s pronouncement, “the talk of the town” in Seattle, was publicized as something “that will help both the company and its employees,” as in offices “we’ve observed that it’s easier for our teammates to learn, model, practice, and strengthen our culture,” as, in person, “collaborating, brainstorming, and inventing are simpler and more effective;  teaching and learning from one another are more seamless; and teams tend to be better connected to one another.” 

Beyond Amazon, a survey showed that while about 30% of CEOs said they “expect workers to be back in the office full-time within three years” in April.  Earlier this month that had become almost 80%.  That stunning shift gives Amazon’s decision at least the appearance of spearheading a widespread change.  There will be exceptions, but many more companies will follow, and, for now, we will hear little about the good side of remote work.

That will come back in the 2030s.  Count on it.