The Jobs Report Tells Only One Story; Consistently, AJSN Shows Latent Demand Down 250,000 to 17.6 Million

This morning’s was supposed to be a critically important Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary.  How did it turn out?

The headline figure, the number of net new nonfarm payroll positions, fell a small amount short of published 160,000 and 161,000 estimates at 142,000.  Seasonally adjusted unemployment ended its monthly march upwards, falling back 0.1% to 4.2%.  Unadjusted unemployment lost the same amount, from 4.5% to 4.4%.  There were 7.1 million officially jobless people, 100,000 better.  The number of long-term unemployed, out 27 weeks or longer, was 1.5 million for the third straight month.  The two measures showing most clearly the share of people actually working or that plus officially jobless, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, held at 60.0% and 62.7%.  Average hourly private nonfarm payroll earnings gained 14 cents, more than inflation, to $35.21.  Trailing the rest was the count of people working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping such employment while thus far unsuccessfully seeking a full-time proposition, up 200,000 to 4.8 million.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, our long-standing statistic showing how many positions, in addition to those now available, could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy and routine to get, lost 258,000 as follows:

  

The fall from July’s result was almost exactly the amount from unemployment, with no other change more than 100,000.  The share of the AJSN from that, at 37.9%, was 0.8% lower. 

Compared with a year before, the AJSN was about 800,000 higher, with 713,000 added from official joblessness, 288,000 from more people wanting work but not looking for it for a year or more, and 200,000 less from a smaller number of American expatriates.  None of the other factors increased or decreased over 50,000. 

What was the one thing which happened?  People left the labor force.  Remember that last month the boost in joblessness came from those jumping back into the working pool without finding it – well, this time, they got out.  Evidence of that was the count of those not interested leaping 1.3 million, the unadjusted number of employed despite the unemployment rate’s fall losing 690,000, and the numbers above of marginal attachment – those wanting work but stopped now for family responsibilities, being in school or training, with ill health or disability, the “other” category, and especially, with a 24% reduction, discouraged – all down.  The AJSN’s drop came from the same place, as people moved to the status with the lowest latent demand.  With this event factored out, despite the 142,000 gain the American employment situation stayed right where it was.  Interest rate decisions should be unchanged from yesterday.  As for the turtle, he did not budge either.