“Lord, it was an awful time, and then the war started” – Bill James
In some ways, what this modern American thinker wrote about
the decade ending in 1919 fit yesterday.
But does it generally?
The largest world news, of course, was Russia’s Ukraine invasion. I won’t comment on that itself except that it
was depressing, horrendously misguided, and possibly ultimately suicidal for
both de facto Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his country. But we need to look at what it means to us
domestically.
The clearest of several primers just out might be “Russia Is
Sowing Conflict in Ukraine. What Does
That Mean for the U.S. Economy?,” by Jeanna Smialek and Ana Swanson, in the
previous day’s New York Times.
Points these well-established authors made were that energy prices and
those for “raw materials and finished goods” would head higher, “global unrest
could spook American consumers, prompting them to cut back on spending and
other economic activity,” there will be disruptions in food supplies caused by
Russia and Ukraine combining for almost 30% of world wheat exports, we will
have further supply chain shakiness, and may see “digital retaliation” from
Moscow to American sanctions. While gold
and silver have gained only modestly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, though up
92 points yesterday, is still over 3,500, or more than 10%, below its January
all-time high. Oil closed at $94.81 per
barrel and may well see $120 within a month.
The war may also push unemployment up slightly, but without as much
effect as our domestic situations. All
bad, but not affecting everything.
Otherwise, while the pandemic both worldwide and in the
United States has been fading quickly – per the New York Times,
Wednesday’s 7-day average of new daily cases was down over 90% from its peak 40
days before – it is still roiling business shipments, with truck drivers often
still required to quarantine just after crossing international borders, and, per
the November 17th Guy Platten New York Times “The
Supply-Chain Crisis Is a Labor Crisis,” doing the same for ship’s crews and
even cargo plane pilots. That sort of deleterious
thing has improved, but isn’t over yet.
How else are Americans responding to these times? Although an ancient practice, we saw that
“Shifting Side Hustle Statistics Reveal New Trends About How We Earn” (Jeff
Proctor, December 17th, DollarSprout.com). This source’s “2021 Side Hustle Report”
showed that of people with such earning propositions, the share putting in 15
hours per week on them shot up last year from 12% to 27%, over half of “side
hustlers” had tried at least three different ones within 12 months, and the portion
of those with these extra ventures using income from them “to cover necessary
monthly bills and expenses” jumped in 2021 from 27% to 41%. Almost one-seventh of participants earned
more than $1,500 monthly last year, tripling since May 2020, with the largest
draws being “enjoying the work” and “flexibility over schedule.” Soon after Covid-19 became widespread, many
started these activities when their regular jobs became endangered or went on
hold, but the developments here go far beyond that. Expect people to be increasingly willing to
pay for convenience, as more have less time but extra money.
Something unambiguously a response to where we are now,
though, is our response to remote meetings, specified in “After Two Years On
Zoom, Workers Finally Learned How To Fool Their Bosses” (Jack Kelly, Forbes,
February 6th). Such
techniques include participants “setting their laptop camera at an angle to
make them look more domineering” (practiced by two-thirds of respondents), appearing
“on an indoor exercise bike to appear disciplined, healthy and dynamic” (just
short of one-quarter!), “wearing formal office attire on the upper body, while
dressing casually below the waist” (82%), “thinking carefully about their
onscreen backdrop and décor” (86%), and “regularly leaving Zoom calls to attend
another work meeting that doesn’t actually exist” (56%). The last, along with other ploys to overstate
busyness and therefore production and value, is an old chestnut updated for the
current environment, and the upper/lower clothing split has long been common in
MBA photo shoots, but some are indeed newer, and, with these robust
percentages, seem now to be the norm.
How will management respond?
When all else fails, we have something, as described in
“Super Bowl wagers rise to records as online sports betting sweeps US” (Katherine
Sayre, The Wall Street Journal, February 16th), long a
distraction during as well as outside work time. Fortified by law loosenings, especially New
York state’s January legalizing of it on cell phones, it reached a probable
all-time American peak for its largest single betting game. Look for even more wagers, as fully legal
American sites replace unlawful and gray-area propositions from the likes of
offshore sportsbooks, and higher tax revenues if relatively few new jobs. It will spawn social problems from people
unable to handle it, but never before have there been so many messages giving
telephone numbers for help lines and the like.
We will endure it, probably ending up like Great Britain and Ireland
where it is both ubiquitous and largely ignored. And we will survive everything else here as
well.