The composite estimate of February’s net new nonfarm positions, in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, was a gain of 59,000. It didn’t even make it to the worst estimate in the group they averaged, which was a 7,000 loss. This morning’s report showed a drop of 92,000.
Most of the other
key numbers weren’t much better. Seasonally
adjusted and unadjusted unemployment each rose 0.1%, to 4.4% and 4.7%. The adjusted number of people jobless increased
200,000 to 7.6 million, with long-term unemployed, or out for 27 weeks or
longer, up 100,000 to 1.9 million. The two
measures most clearly showing attachment to work, the labor force participation
rate and the employment-population ratio, may have fared the worst of any, each
plummeting 0.5% – that is the right word, with 0.1% changes being substantial –
to 62.0% and 59.3%. Average hourly private
nonfarm payroll wages, though, gained the same 15 cents as last time, to
$37.32, roughly tracking inflation, and the other exception was the count of
those working part-time for economic reasons, which lost 500,000, even more
than in January, to 4.4 million.
The American
Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the metric showing how many new positions could be
filled if all knew they would be easy to get, gained 75,000 to reach the
following:
The largest change
from January was actually from those discouraged, which shrank over 150,000. Aside from the almost 100,000 effect of
higher official joblessness, the AJSN was pushed upwards slightly by more in
school or training, more who wanted to work but did not search for it for a
year or longer, those not wanting to work at all, and those institutionalized,
in the military, or off the grid. Compared
with a year before, the AJSN was 441,000 higher, almost entirely covered by unemployment.
Just how bad
was this jobs report? It was bad. It has been over a year since it has turned
in a net job loss before adjustments. Unadjusted,
almost a million fewer people were employed.
Connection to the labor market dropped heavily, with not only the stunning
falls in the two percentages above but with 609,000 more gone from the labor
force and 660,000 more not interested. From
mid-January to mid-February, people walked away from work, and their interest
in same, in droves. That also may have
been the reason for the cut in those working part-time for economic reasons –
many of them may have given up and quit.
We’re suddenly in bad shape – and, no, it’s not all, or even
significantly, due to artificial intelligence.
Although February is usually similar to January, this time it wasn’t. The turtle took a large step – backwards.
