My first thought as I went through this morning’s Bureau of
Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was that November was a flatline
month. Nonfarm payroll employment gained
155,000, over the level needed to absorb our population gain but not much. The break-evens included seasonally adjusted
unemployment (3.7%), unadjusted unemployment (3.5%), the labor force
participation rate (62.9%), and the employment-population ratio (60.6%),
arguably the four most important jobs figures the BLS publishes. Average hourly nonfarm payroll wages didn’t
do anything either, gaining 5 cents per hour, or just about the inflation rate,
to $27.35. The two other major data points
were mixed, with the count of people working part-time for economic reasons, or
holding on to short-hours positions while thus far unsuccessfully seeking full-time
ones, up 200,000 to 4.8 million, and the number officially jobless for 27 weeks
or longer off 100,000 to 1.3 million.
Given all that, especially with the last two statistics not
an input to it, I expected the American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, which shows
latent demand for American work, to have stayed virtually the same. However, it lost 200,000, improving as
follows:
Half of the drop was from lower official unemployment. The other half came from one of the numbers of
marginal labor-force attachment above.
The count of people saying they wanted to work but had not looked for it
during the previous year fell 136,000 from October, which meant their group’s
latent demand fell about 109,000. The
other smaller factors almost held, with a 45,000 rise in those temporarily in
school or training and a 120,000 gain in “other” offset by 53,000 fewer calling
themselves discouraged.
The AJSN’s year-over-year comparison was also strong. In November 2017, there were 636,000 more unemployed
and almost 1.5 million more counted as non-civilian (in the armed forces),
institutionalized, and unaccounted for (off the grid), with changes in the
other components small and mixed, resulting in a 660,000 drop.
You may read from other sources that this jobs report was
disappointing. I don’t see that. More new positions than our rising population
needs, even if they were below some estimates, is, as we will find out with the
next recession, nothing to take for granted.
The smaller categories above are straightening themselves out, with
people settling into a robust employment market but with more realistic views of
whether it could help them personally. Otherwise,
we broke even. As to why November wasn’t
better, the answer may be that we are simply running out of room. We can always use many more jobs, but barring
something on the scale of a national infrastructure project, there is no reason
for us to get them. Given that, this is hardly
a shabby place to hang out. And yes,
while it was small, the turtle did indeed take another step forward.
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