March Jobs Data: American Job Shortage Number Down 400,000 to 16.1 Million in Peaceful, Reassuring Month

Most of us eagerly anticipated February’s data, as it showed the state of the economy better than January’s shutdown-marred edition, so what about March’s? 

Heading the Bureau of Labor Statistics data was a 196,000 net new nonfarm payroll jobs gain, a tad above a published 180,000 estimate and not only more than needed for population growth but in line with the 162,000 January-February average.  Seasonally adjusted unemployment held at 3.8%, with the unadjusted version down mostly seasonally 0.2% from 4.1% to 3.9%.  Adjusted official joblessness sat at 6.2 million, with those out for 27 weeks or longer (1.3 million) and average private nonfarm wages (up 4 cents per hour, or about the same as inflation, to $27.70) also treading water.  However, the two measures of how common it is for Americans to be working, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio, both worsened, the former down 0.2% to 63.0% and the latter off 0.1% to 60.6%.  As well, the count of those working part-time for economic reasons, or holding on to less than full-time jobs they were not yet successfully able to upgrade, grew 200,000 to 4.5 million, losing half of its January and February improvement.

The American Job Shortage Number, the figure showing how many positions could be quickly filled if getting one were easy and routine, got 388,000 better, as follows:

The largest differences were from official unadjusted unemployment, which fell 250,000, and an almost 200,000 drop in those wanting work but not looking for it for the past year.  There was little change elsewhere.

Compared with a year before, the AJSN improved 179,000, with a difference of more than that from unemployment.  Despite March’s reduction, the count of those not looking for a year or more is still up 200,000, but nothing else seems a cause for concern.  We have almost leveled off, but not quite.

That describes this morning’s data well, February’s disappointing 20,000 jobs gain reversed itself, and unemployment did not increase.  I don’t like the cuts in the labor ratios, but they have fluctuated enough so we can’t call them a trend or even a worry.  Nothing dramatic on the American employment front is now happening.  April’s data may disagree, but for today, the good times continue.  The turtle, once more, took a tiny step forward.