What Recession? Another Strong Employment Data Set, with Over a Quarter Million More Jobs and AJSN Showing Latent Demand Down Almost Triple That

Per this morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, the good work times are still rolling.  We gained 263,000 net new nonfarm positions, close to the two published 250,000 estimates I saw.  Adjusted and unadjusted unemployment fell to 3.5% and 3.3% respectively, down 0.2% and 0.5%.  At 5.8 million, there were 200,000 fewer unemployed people than a month before, with 758,000, down 24,000, on temporary layoff, and again 1.1 million out for 27 weeks or longer.  The two measures of rank-and-file Americans’ connections to work, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio, lost 0.1% and held to reach 62.3% and 60.1%.  The count of people working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping less than full-time arrangements while seeking thus far unsuccessfully longer hours, is still oscillating, and this time improved 300,000 to 3.8 million.  Average private nonfarm payroll hourly earnings increased 10 cents per hour, still less than inflation, and are now at $32.46.  The number of people working rose 300,000 and is now 159 million. 

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the metric telling how many new positions could be quickly filled if all knew they were easy to get, lost over 700,000 to reach the following: 

 

The difference from August almost matches the effect of reduced joblessness, although the shrinking number of Americans wanting employment but not looking for it for a year or more, mostly offset by higher numbers of discouraged and the seasonal increase in willing workers in school or training, contributed significantly also.  Compared with a year before, the AJSN is almost 1.7 million lower, also with very close to that amount from lower official unemployment.  Only 30.8% of the AJSN is from that, meaning that nearly 70% of non-working people who would fill new positions have other statuses. 

On the coronavirus front, per the New York Times, between August 16^th and September 16^th the 7-day average of new daily cases plunged 38% to 62,194, hospitalizations fell 22% to 32,441, and deaths were off 4% to 449.  Daily vaccinations, helped by the new specialized booster, were up 9% to 299,222. 

What I see here is a strong match between employers and potential employees, with the increase in jobs again way higher than what our shrinking population gain absorbed.  We have Covid-19 looking more and more endemic instead of a pandemic and ever-improving numbers there, so plenty of people long out of work are returning.  It is possible that interest rate hikes will strongly influence this data next time, but people are still spending freely, more businesses are willing to pay current market rates, and high inflation, at least for now, is continuing.  Overall, we have real prosperity, so the turtle, once more, took a good step forward.