More Jobs but a Down Report – AJSN Showed Latent Demand Off a Bit To 15.8 Million

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was touted as important, with last time’s tiny nonfarm payroll positions gain expected to strongly rebound and the whole thing affecting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision less than two weeks away. 

On the number of jobs, the report delivered.  The five estimates I saw were all between 200,000 and 215,000, and the result was 227,000.  Otherwise, outcomes were largely a sea of red.  Seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment each gained 0.1% to get to 4.2% and 4.0%.  The total adjusted number of jobless rose 100,000 to 7.1 million, with the unadjusted variety up 75,000 to 6,708,000.  The unadjusted count of employed was off 482,000 to 161.456 million.  There were 100,000 more long-term unemployed – 1.7 million out of work for 27 weeks or longer.  The two statistics best showing how common it is for Americans to be working or one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, worsened 0.2% and 0.1% to get to 59.8% and 62.5%.  The only two of the front-line results I track to improve were the count of people working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping such arrangements while looking thus far unsuccessfully for full-time ones, which lost 100,000 to 4.5 million, and average hourly private nonfarm payroll earnings, up 15 cents, well over inflation, to $35.61.

The American Job Shortage Number, the measure showing how many additional positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy to get, dropped just over 60,000 to reach the following:

The largest change since October was the 215,000 effect of the 269,000 fall of those wanting work but not searching for it for a year or more.  The contribution of those officially unemployed was up 69,000, and no other statistic above affected the AJSN more than 39,000.  The share from joblessness was 38.1%, rising 0.5%.

Compared with a year before, the AJSN gained 180,000, the most activity from mostly offsetting higher unemployment and fewer expatriates. 

How can we summarize this report?  Torpid.  Despite the 227,000 net new jobs, fewer people are working, and we see what looks like many previously not trying to get jobs for a year or more declaring themselves uninterested.  We know how flexible that category really is, and this time it flexed up, with much more than the aging population responsible.  We really did not go anywhere this time, so the Fed clearly should grab the final 2024 interest rate cut.  As for the turtle, he did not move.