Per Latest Jobs Report, Employment Keeps on Trucking; AJSN Says Latent Demand Way Down To 16.0 Million

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was forecasted to show a real decrease in the number of net new nonfarm payroll positions, from last month’s surprising 228,000 to 125,000 or 135,000.  It did better than that, with 177,000, way beyond what we have reason to expect given our slowing population growth and our recent series of strong employment months.  That is a fine result, and hints at no jobs-related effect from current or canceled tariffs, at least through mid-April.

Otherwise, results in the report were mixed.  Seasonally adjusted unemployment held at 4.2%.  On the good side, the two measures of how common it is for people to be working or close, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, each gained 0.1% to 60.0% and 62.6%.  Unadjusted joblessness dropped 0.3%, mostly but not completely from seasonality, to 3.9%.  The count of people working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping that sort of work while thus far unsuccessfully seeking full-time opportunities, lost 100,000 to 4.7 million.  Unadjusted employment rose an excellent 631,000 to just over 164 million.  Worsening numbers included a 200,000 jump in those jobless for 27 weeks or longer, to 1.7 million, and average hourly nonfarm payroll earnings, edged out by inflation at $36.06, or 6 cents more. 

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the metric showing how many new positions could be quickly filled if seekers knew that getting one would be little more than another errand, lost almost 700,000 as follows:

 

Six hundred thousand of the decrease was from lower official employment, with the rest from fewer people wanting work but not looking for it during the previous year.  Other changes were small.  The share of the AJSN from those unemployed fell 2.1% to reach 36.9%.  Compared with 12 months before, the AJSN was virtually unchanged, with higher joblessness covered by a lower estimate of the number of American expatriates.

What happened this time?  It was a positive month for employment.  While 270,000 more said they were not interested in work, driving a 205,000 increase in those not in the labor force, they seemed to be those who did not have jobs, as the count of those working reached a strong local high.  The categories of marginal attachment changed little, which was fine since that meant they held last month’s improvements.  So far, then, the antics of our Executive Branch have not, overall, affected American employment, and though I am expecting something from the high China tariffs, we are still in good shape.  Yet we cannot take anything like 177,000 new jobs for granted, and that sort of result may cease.  It’s all largely up to our president’s whim.  This month, though, the turtle took a substantial step forward.