Something often mentioned these past two-plus years of intense AI news has been what it will do to employment. First, many were claiming that a massive shedding of office jobs was imminent, which was premature at best. How about more recently?
“I’m a
LinkedIn Executive. I See the Bottom
Rung of the Career Ladder Breaking.” So
said Aneesh Raman in the May 19th New York Times. His case was that “there are growing signs
that artificial intelligence poses a real threat to a substantial number of the
jobs that normally serve as the first step for each new generation of young
workers.” That’s nothing new – such
positions have been getting higher for decades, from my onetime father-in-law
starting his illustrious pharmaceutical career in the 1950s by sweeping up the
lab, through the steady attrition of what were once called “secretaries” at
AT&T through at least the 1990s, and continuing with more and more bottom-level
positions requiring excellent computer user skills this century. Raman talked about “advanced coding tools”
replacing “writing simple code and debugging,” and similar things happening
with document review at law firms and “automated customer service tools” at
“retailers.” True, these trends are coinciding
with poorer employment rates for new college graduates, but he said “we haven’t
seen definitive evidence that A.I. is the reason for the shaky entry-level job
market.” The author also failed to
mention that even if we “reimagine (entry-level work) entirely,” there will be
fewer such positions.
Next, Leif
Weatherby’s exposition that “A.I. Killed the Math Brain” (The New York Times,
June 2nd), that “the largest problem… is not the college essay, the
novel or the office memo. It’s computer
code.” Tracking with Raman, he noted
“that at major A.I. companies, the hiring rate for software engineering jobs
have (sic) fallen over the course of 2024 from a high of about 3,000 per month
to near zero.” He recommended that
“young students… study language and mathematics,” to be able to audit AI
output, which would be “also a way to deepen our humanity in the face of these
strange machines we have built, and to understand them.”
The same
events, with an additional cause, were described by Paul Davidson in USA
Today’s June 5th “Tech job openings vanish as AI, tariffs change
hiring landscape.” In a different view
from the first piece, “AI… is increasingly prompting technology companies to
hire fewer recent college graduates and lay off more employees, according to
economists and staffing firms.” Per the
most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, we have
still been gaining plenty of jobs, but “from April 2022 to March 2025, the
unemployment rate for recent college grads – aged 22 to 27 – shot up from 3.9%
to 5.8%,” compared with only 3.7% to 4.0% for everyone.
On the other
side, we saw “A.I. Might Take Your Job.
Here Are 22 New Ones It Could Give You” (Robert Capps, The New York
Times, June 17th). The
author dispensed with AI being ready to write news stories, as “in freelance
journalism… you aren’t just being paid for the words you submit. You’re being paid to be responsible
for them: the facts, the concepts, the
fairness, the phrasing” (italics Capps’s), even though “commentators have
become increasingly bleak about the future of human work in an A.I. world.” He named, as his 22 positions, AI auditors,
AI translators, trust authenticators, AI ethicists, legal guarantors,
consistency coordinators, escalation officers, AI integrators, AI “plumbers,”
AI assessors, integration specialists, AI trainers, AI personality directors, drug-compliance
optimizers, AI/human evaluation specialists, enhanced product designers,
article designers, story designers, world designers, human resources designers,
civil designers, and differentiation designers, all defined in the text. Although we should ask how many of these will
be needed, AI’s deficiencies will indeed call for many to mop up for it – how
about AI janitors?
“AI Is Taking
Over Jobs; Is Yours at Risk?” (Autumn Spredemann, The Epoch Times, June
17th). Unfortunately vague
about events in the past, expected in the immediate future, and projected by
2030, the author still clearly claimed that positions already losing headcount
included 4,000 in May 2023, and “26 percent of illustrators and 36 percent of translators
had already lost work because of generative AI.”
Last, “A
‘White-Collar Blood Bath’ Doesn’t Have to Be Our Fate” (Tim Wu, The New York
Times, June 24th). Wu had
been hearing “a lot of talk in recent weeks about” such a thing, “a scenario in
the near future in which many college-educated workers are replaced by
artificial intelligence programs that do their jobs faster and better.” He said it wouldn’t be determined by “fate,”
if “companies like Anthropic and Open AI” decide to use their products to
enhance instead of supplant workers.
However, since “any technology – from the stone ax onward – replaces
some human work in the course of augmenting it,” we will not end lost jobs with
any AI-using strategy.
What’s
unexpected here? Until such problems as
AI hallucinations somehow go away, the old 2023-ish idea that we will lose
great masses of clerical and nontechnical office jobs won’t materialize. It’s on the technical front now. It may seem ironic that a product of oversold
and overly-beloved STEM work may be the thing to knock its other opportunities off
their pedestal, but that’s what we’re looking at now. We are well and indefinitely into a time, per
Weatherby, “in which a computer science degree is no longer a guarantee of a
job.” No matter where AI goes from here,
that will continue, and we need to accept it.
Perhaps, also as Weatherby said, we need to bring back the career value
of the liberal arts – even in our technology-soaked world. Don’t rule that out.
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