Jobs Report: Small Changes Here and There, But Basically We’re Going Nowhere

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was supposed to be critically important – as if some of them lately haven’t been.  How did we do?

The number of net new nonfarm payroll positions failed to reach even its modest published estimates of 75,000 and 54,000, and came in at 22,000.  Seasonally unadjusted unemployment fell to 4.5%, down 0.1%, and the adjusted variety, reflecting more people usually working in August than in July, increased the same to 4.3%.  The adjusted count of unemployed gained another 200,000 to 7.4 million, and that of long-term unemployed, looking for 27 weeks or longer, rose 100,000 to 1.9 million.  The number of people working part-time for economic reasons, or looking for full-time work while maintaining part-time labor, stayed at 4.7 million.  The measures showing how common it is for Americans to be working or officially jobless, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio, gained 0.1% and broke even to get to 62.3% and 59.6%.  Unadjusted unemployment was off just over 500,000 to end at 163,288,000.  The unadjusted counts of those not in the labor force and not interested in working each fell over 800,000, reaching 102,966,000 and 96,167,000.  Average private nonfarm payroll wages were up 10 cents per hour, close to our inflation rate, to $36.53.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the seasonally unadjusted metric showing how many new positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy and routine to get, was down 48,000 as follows:

None of the components changed as much as 100,000, with the effect of the drop in employment subtracting 90,000 and people discouraged and not wanting a job adding 43,000 and 31,500.  The share of the AJSN from official unemployment was down 0.4% to 39.2%. 

Compared with a year before, the AJSN showed a noteworthy pattern, as although it only increased 179,000, all the factors above except the last were higher this time.  The largest gains were from those unemployed, those who wanted work but did not look for it over the past year, those discouraged, and those who did not want a job.

How can I summarize this report?  I think you can guess what the turtle did from the title, but a few other things happened that we should notice.  First, people are now reacting more by leaving the labor force than by trying when they don’t think their chances are good.  Second, as I had been saying for years, monthly job gains of 100,000 to 200,000, though they were the norm before and ever since the pandemic, were nothing to take for granted, and we’re solidly out of that territory now.  Third, the smaller categories of marginal attachment, the second through sixth and eighth rows above, are showing their capacity to absorb generally unsatisfied jobseekers and should not be ignored.  While there are plenty of differences below the surface, our employment situation, overall, is at a standstill, with virtually no growth.  The chances are good that tariffs are having a real effect.  The turtle did not move.