September’s Jobs Report – Months Ago Now, with Mild Changes – AJSN Now 16.9 Million

Between the government shutdown and my own outage, we’re about eight weeks later for this one than we usually are, but it still has something meaningful to say.  What?

The number of net new nonfarm payroll positions in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary came in at 119,000, not huge but strongly positive and exceeding a few estimates.  Seasonally adjusted unemployment was 4.4%, up 0.1%, and the unadjusted variety, reflecting work increases in September, fell from 4.5% to 4.3%, with the unadjusted count of those with jobs up 606,000, just more than last time’s loss, similarly moving to 163,894,000.  The two measures showing how many Americans are working or only one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, each gained 0.1% to 59.7% and 62.4%.  The count of those working part-time for economic reasons, or looking thus far unsuccessfully for full-time labor while keeping at least one part-time proposition, was down 100,000 to 4.8 million, as was the number of people officially unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, reaching 1.8 million.  Average private hourly nonfarm payroll earnings rose 14 cents, a bit more than inflation, to $36.67.

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the Royal Flush Press statistic showing how many additional positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy to get, lost 844,000, mostly seasonally, to get to the following:

 

Less than half of the drop was from lower unemployment – more was from a large cut in those reporting they wanted to work but had not looked for it during the previous year.  The other factors changed little.  Year-over-year, the AJSN increased 316,000, with unemployment up since September 2024 and those not wanting work adding 115,000.  The share of the AJSN from official joblessness shrank 0.3% to 38.9%.

What happened this time?  Not a great deal, and barely better than neutral.  Those not interested in work rose 750,000, which with August’s 860,000 meant over 1.6 million over two months, which is a lot.  Otherwise, everything reasonably hung on.  There will be no October AJSN or Employment Situation Summary, but you can expect November’s writeup to appear here on the next jobs report’s December 16^th release date.  For now, the turtle managed only a tiny step forward.