One of many problems of emphasizing a single result in the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary is that it may not be representative of the outcomes as a group. April’s edition, which came out this morning, was a prime example.
The number of
net new nonfarm payroll positions almost doubled the published estimate I saw,
reaching 115,000 instead of 67,000. From
there, although seasonally unadjusted joblessness fell from 4.3% to 4.0%, the adjusted
version did not worsen at 4.3%, unadjusted unemployment was seasonally off 465,000
to 6.77 million, and long-term unemployed held at 1.8 million, it was a
negative month. The count of adjusted
jobless rose 200,000 to 7.4 million. The
two figures showing how common it was for Americans to be working or just short
of that, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation
rate, each dropped 0.1% to reach 59.1% and 61.8%. The number of people working part-time for
economic reasons, or holding short-hours positions while seeking thus far unsuccessfully
full-time ones, soared 400,000 to 4.9 million.
Average hourly private nonfarm payroll earnings again gained less than
inflation, 3 cents per hour, to $37.41. Despite
April being a seasonally stronger month than March, the unadjusted count of
employed moved up only 17,000, to 162,781,000.
The American Job
Shortage Number, the seasonally unadjusted metric showing how many new and
unadvertised positions could be suddenly filled if all knew they would be easy
to get, lost about one third of a million, less than seasonal expectations, to
the following:
The inputs, except
for classic unemployment which deducted over 500,000, offset one-third of the
latter’s subtraction, with most coming from increased numbers of those not
looking for the previous year, those wanting to work but unavailable for now, those
not wanting a job, and those in school or training. The share of the AJSN from this official
joblessness shrank from 39.3% to 37.0%.
We did not
make progress in April. As well as in
the results above, the year-over-year comparison showed the AJSN up 423,000,
with more from nearly all of the secondary categories above as well as 169,000
from unemployment, which was almost 200,000 lower in April 2025. More people are falling behind in pay. More people – 650,000 additional over the
month – have left the labor force, with 422,000 more claiming no work
interest. The number of Americans going part-time
for economic reasons, an indicator of hardship while working that is not reflected
in other statistics, is again pushing post-pandemic highs. It is good to get more jobs, but this time
that wasn’t enough. The turtle stayed
right where he was.
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