February’s Employment Numbers Were Hot Ones, Including AJSN Showing Latent Job Demand Off 800,000

We left January’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary by calling it a muddled mess, made that way by peaking Omicron cases and annual adjustments.  This morning’s installment made it clear where we are going.

The two marquee statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and the gain in nonfarm payroll positions, starred, the first down 0.2% to 3.8% and the second at half again its consensus projection, 678,000.  Most of the others also came out well.  Unadjusted joblessness fell 0.3% to 4.1%, the count of unemployed was off 200,000 to 6.3 million, and there were 71,000 fewer on temporary layoff or 888,000.  The two numbers best showing how many Americans are actually working or one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, increased 0.2% and 0.1% and are at 59.9% and 62.3%.  There were some laggers – the count of those out of work 27 weeks or longer held at 1.7 million, average private nonfarm payroll earnings lost 5 cents per hour plus the effect of inflation to reach $31.58, and those working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping that level of employment while unsuccessfully seeking full-time propositions, now total 400,000 more or 4.1 million. 

The American Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the one-number statistic showing how many more positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be as easy to get as a pizza, shed 832,000 as follows:

Almost all of the change was from the count of unemployed, which cut off 382,000, and the number wanting to work but not looking for it during the previous year, now 412,000 fewer.  The other components seemingly only fluctuated.  The share of the AJSN from those officially jobless fell 0.5% to 35.9%, meaning that almost two-thirds of those taking currently unadvertised positions without existing jobs would have other statuses.  Compared with a year before the AJSN has lost 4.2 million, from lower unemployment (3.3 million) and fewer people not looking for a year or more (1.0 million).  The continued large year-over-year improvements show how strong our recovery has been. 

On the pandemic side, the 7-day daily averages from January 16^th to February 16^th (or the 15^th when the 16^th was unavailable) showed new cases down 85% to 124,025, deaths up 17% to 2,328, the number hospitalized off 45% to 84,966, and vaccinations down 52% to 516,988.  Mid-January was the absolute peak of the Omicron variant, with hospitalizations and deaths lagging moderate and large intervals, and all of these numbers are still falling.

This time, the jobs data verdict is clear.  February was a robust month, with no hint that we sacrificed health for work and the only real concerns being that possibly-one-time poor payroll earnings result and some secondary statuses hovering in highish territory.  As Covid-19 has lost influence, demand for goods and services has put many more people back to work, and there is every reason that will continue.  Accordingly, the turtle took a big step forward, and is stretching his legs in anticipation of another one.