This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary was supposed to show at least some continuation from August’s strong outcomes. Did we get that? No.
The number of
net new nonfarm payroll positions was projected at 90,000, but it was
29,000. Seasonally adjusted unemployment
worsened by a tenth of a percent to 4.2%.
The adjusted number of unemployed gained 100,000 to 7.1 million. The count of those working part-time for economic
reasons, or doing such while looking thus far unsuccessfully for full-time propositions,
added 100,000, reaching 4.5 million.
Average private nonfarm hourly payroll wages fell short of inflation, gaining
6 cents to $37.81. On the break-even
side, the best this data could offer, people unemployed for 27 weeks or longer
still added to 1.9 million, and the two measures showing how many Americans are
working or one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force
participation rate, were split, with the former up 0.1% to 59.2% and the latter
off the same amount to 61.8%.
The American
Job Shortage Number or AJSN, the Royal Flush Press statistic showing how many
more positions could be quickly filled if all knew they would be easy and
routine to get, lost over 600,000, on the large seasonal difference between
August and September, to reach the following:
The share of
the AJSN from official joblessness lost 1.4% to get to 37.5%. Over 90% of the AJSN’s improvement came from
unemployment, 469,800 better, and those wanting to work but not looking for it
for a year or more, contributing 100,800 less.
Nothing was significant in the other direction.
Compared with
a year before, the AJSN improved very close to a half million, with fewer
unemployed, fewer discouraged, and fewer in the military, institutions, or off
the grid partially offset by more people claiming no interest in work.
What’s the
story here? I did not mention the
improvements in other unadjusted figures driven by many people coming back to
work as school years started. Did we get
any help from the numbers not mentioned above, those not in the labor force,
down 111,000, and not interested, up 140,000?
Not there. Annual progress was
not helped this time. That leaves us
with the down picture in the second paragraph, which shows a poor employment
month. It was small, but the turtle, indeed,
took a step backwards.
